VEXTEC Corporation — Department of Defense SBIR Phase II: ABSTRACT: The Phase II objective is to develop a probabilistic multi-disciplinary, multi-

Description

ABSTRACT: The Phase II objective is to develop a probabilistic multi-disciplinary, multi-fidelity uncertainty management analytical tool that links aerodynamic analysis, structural analysis, and fatigue analysis to predict the durability for airframe components and demonstrate that the tool can be used analyze actual airframe structures. The benefit of developing such an uncertainty management tool is to make accurate remaining useful life forecasts of aircraft systems based on actual usage. It is anticipated that the demonstration will be performed on a legacy airframe component. The first year of the project will be focused on developing the necessary computational codes & models to set up the demonstration problem and laying out the basic multi-disciplinary analysis framework to predict fatigue durability. The second year of the project will focus on developing Bayesian analysis techniques which will update usage and damage states (based on real and simulated inspection data) to provide revised estimates on durability. BENEFIT: In the current age of large multi-disciplinary virtual simulation, developing a multi-disciplinary, multi-fidelity uncertainty management tool is useful in determining how to minimize overall uncertainty in analytical predictions. In addition the methodology can be used to optimize for the best use of computational resources to arrive at most robust predictions. The benefit of this methodology lies in creating understanding of how parameter changes at each discipline level affects overall system reliability and uncertainty.