STOTTLER HENKE ASSOCIATES, INC — Department of Defense SBIR Phase I: ABSTRACT: The USAF requires accurate assessment regarding the effects of space weather up

Description

ABSTRACT: The USAF requires accurate assessment regarding the effects of space weather upon Low Earth Orbit (LEO), Medium Earth Orbit (MEO), and Geosynchronous Earth Orbit (GEO) satellites. This information is important in order to distinguish between natural environmental effects upon spacecraft systems and man-made threats. This effort aims to address this problem by developing a tool that assists in determining the cause of an observed satellite anomaly. Specifically, we propose a Space Weather Anomaly ("SWAN") Explorer, which will correlate space weather and satellite telemetry events, allowing investigators to confidently discern whether or not there is a basis for attributing an anomaly to space weather. SWAN Explorer, in cooperation with space weather data products and expertise from Space Environment Technologies (SET), will bring together space weather indexes from diverse data sources and perform automated analysis to present the evidence for or against the contribution of space weather to a detected satellite anomaly. SWAN Explorer will provide a flexible framework for performing automated analysis from user-editable analysis models such as decision tree and nave Bayes classifiers, and intelligently present the results of the automated analysis to the user to optimize the salience of the data presented to the user while mitigating information overload. BENEFIT: This proposed research effort will result in intelligent data visualization technology that will enhance the speed and accuracy with which satellite operators can review data and correlate satellite telemetry anomalies with space weather conditions. The Space and Missile Center Space Superiority Wing and Electronic Systems Center JSpOC Mission Systems program are two potential customers within the Air Force who have a need for this technology. However, a multitude of target users exist in the private sector. Fixed satellite services garnered revenues of $9.5 billion in 2009, with an estimated annual growth rate of 5.4% through 2019. These firms include SES, Intelsat, Eutelsat, and Telesat, just to name the largest players among the hundreds of operators out there. Aside from the long-term benefits that could be derived from a greater understanding of the specific effects of space weather on satellite systems, satellite operators, manufacturers and insurance companies have immediate interest in determining the cause of satellite anomalies, so as to place the blame for unexplained anomalies where it is due. The in-orbit loss of the Telstar 401 satellite in 1993, for instance, resulted in $135 million in insurance disbursements and the in-orbit loss of Telstar 4 in 2003 cost insurers $141 million. Large sums are at stake when investigating the cause of a failure. A good indication of the frequency of total satellite losses is the insurance rate of 1.75-3% of the depreciated value of the satellite after it has survived post-separation. Considering that satellite demand is only expected to increase in the next decade, there is no question that there exists ample commercial opportunity for the SWAN Explorer if it is successful.