Phase I to Phase II Conversion Rates by Agency
Phase II is where SBIR dollars concentrate. This hub shows a firm-level Phase I→II conversion proxy by awarding agency — use it as a go/no-go signal, not a guarantee.
How to read conversion
We count distinct firms with at least one Phase I award at an agency and how many of those firms also appear with a Phase II award at the same agency in our database. It is a proxy for persistence, not an official SBA success rate for a single topic.
| Agency | Phase I firms | Also Phase II | Conversion proxy |
|---|---|---|---|
| Department of Defense | 5,870 | 2,537 | 43.2% |
| Department of Health and Human Services | 5,317 | 1,992 | 37.5% |
| National Science Foundation | 3,804 | 1,296 | 34.1% |
| Department of Energy | 1,661 | 752 | 45.3% |
| National Aeronautics and Space Administration | 1,451 | 257 | 17.7% |
| Department of Agriculture | 745 | 284 | 38.1% |
| Department of Commerce | 328 | 165 | 50.3% |
| Department of Homeland Security | 263 | 119 | 45.2% |
| Environmental Protection Agency | 233 | 86 | 36.9% |
| Department of Transportation | 154 | 94 | 61.0% |
| Department of Education | 151 | 70 | 46.4% |
| General Services Administration | 2 | 0 | 0.0% |
Use conversion in bid decisions
High conversion agencies still have hard topics. Pair this table with topic-level competitive intel (incumbents, prior Phase I winners) and your readiness scorecard before you commit.
Frequently asked questions
Is this the official Phase II success rate?
No. Official rates vary by methodology and year. This is a transparent firm-level proxy from public award records in SBIR Signal.
Why does conversion matter?
Phase II awards are larger and rarer. Understanding agency patterns helps you prioritize where a Phase I is more likely to lead to follow-on funding.