PREDICTIVE SCIENCE INCORPORATED — National Aeronautics and Space Administration SBIR Phase I: S5
PREDICTIVE SCIENCE INCORPORATED — SBIR Phase I award from National Aeronautics and Space Administration.
Phase I SBIR feasibility signal
- Phase I awards fund proof-of-concept work. For capture teams, they mark early interest from National Aeronautics and Space Administration in a technical approach.
- Watch for Phase II follow-ons from the same firm/topic family — that conversion path is where budgets and transition pressure rise.
- Obligated amount $124,935. Cross-check similar awards in the same agency and technology tags for going-rate context.
- Topic code S5 links this award to a solicitation family — search the same topic stem for incumbents and recompete timing.
- Amount
- $124,935
- Agency
- National Aeronautics and Space Administration
- Program / Phase
- SBIR · Phase I
- Topic
- S5
- Solicitation
- SBIR_20_P1
- NAICS
- —
- Place of performance
- CA
- Period
- 2020-08-31 → 2021-03-01
Description
The ambient solar magnetic field plays a key role in heliophysics in general and in space weather in particular. nbsp;It is especially important for the propagation of solar energetic particles (SEPs), guiding them along the magnetic field from their generation near the Sun to locations in the heliosphere. nbsp;Solar Particle Events (SPEs), arising from SEPs produced by solar eruptions, represent a significant hazard for humans and technological infrastructure. nbsp;Providing longer range (2-3 day) forecasts of SPEs and/or all-clear periods is highly desirable but difficult to achieve, because a forecast must occur prior to the start of the eruption. nbsp;Given a flare/CME forecast, a major source of uncertainty in SPEs is the magnetic connectivity. nbsp;The goal of nbsp;our project is to develop CORHEL-E (CORHEL with Evolution). nbsp;CORHEL-E will provide time-dependent coronal and solar wind solutions, driven by evolving boundary conditions provided by photospheric flux transport models. nbsp;In phase I of our project, we will demonstrate time-dependent estimates of magnetic connectivity of Earth for specific time periods, using ensembles of solutions to assess variability and uncertainty. nbsp;At the completion of phase II, we will provide CORHEL-E to the CCMC, capable of running continuously. nbsp;Given a flare/eruption forecast from a threatening active region, CORHEL-E will allow the user to assess the regional connectivity and likelihood that SEPs can reach Earth or other heliospheric locations of interest. nbsp;Using STAT, an eruption can actually be simulated and particle fluxes predicted. nbsp;Longer term, our vision for an operational capability is a near-real time model of the solar corona and inner heliosphere, updated with new magnetic (and other) observations as they become available. nbsp;CMEs would be initiated in the model after being observed, and then be simulated as part of the continuous solution. nbsp;The development of CORHEL-E is a crucial next step towards this goal.